In February, the Monetary Policy Council decided to keep the NBP interest rates unchanged again in February, which fully coincided with the broad expected market. The main rate – reference – will therefore still be 4.5%. This is not surprising, because on the one hand inflation and inflation expectations remain high, and on the other all forecasts also indicate that this year GDP growth will slow down. Despite better information recently, in relation to not only the condition of the Polish economy, but also the entire global economy, there are still many question marks. The same also applies to the situation on global financial markets, including the dollar.
The recent strong strengthening of our currency
For several weeks is obviously positive and as such is definitely a factor reducing inflationary pressure. It is doubtful, however, that this clear movement of the dollar will be able to influence today the softening of the MPC rhetoric, which had just been sharpened in January. It seems that the Council, with any new message and then taking specific actions, will want to stop at least until March, constantly observing the situation in the country and abroad, and awaiting the latest inflation and GDP projection published by the Prio Earn Bank in a few weeks. Of course, whether this was the conclusion of the two-day meeting that has ended today or whether it will not turn out at 16:00, when the information will be published after this meeting and a conference with representatives of the Council will be held. Interestingly, despite the January tightening of rhetoric by the Council, the market still expects that in 2012 the level of interest rates will fall rather than increase, although it assumes not only two, but only one 25 point cut, which would take place in the third quarter.
Neutral decision for borrowers
The Council’s Wednesday decision does not change the situation of borrowers in debt in the Polish currency. In the above conditions, the 3-month WIBOR rate, which is the most common basis for determining the interest rate on loans in PLN, will probably remain around the highest levels in 3 years. After it reached exactly 5% on 10 January, it is currently consolidating only slightly below this barrier, currently at 4.98%. This reading is practically identical as at the end of December and January, when it was 4.99%. Currently, there is no chance for a clear decline in this rate, just as the risk of a strong increase is low. The latter could, however, increase significantly if the situation on global markets deteriorated again significantly and the dollar would start to depreciate again.