NBA picks, lines: Latest odds for Celtics at Bucks and Grizzlies at Warriors Game 3s

The Boston-Milwaukee and Golden State-Memphis series had a few days off, but return to the floor on Saturday. The two series switched venues with Milwaukee and Golden State at home after sharing two road games.

The Warriors (-300) and Celtics (-125) are series favorites after two games. Game 3 on Saturday will be crucial in how these playoffs unfold.

Saturday’s NBA Playoff schedule:

• Game 3: Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks – 3:30 p.m. ET – ABC
• Game 3: Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 p.m. ET – ABC

Every day during the NBA playoffs, The Athletic writers will make their picks, straight. We put our picks and coverage of all series, plus the latest ratings, all in one place for fans to easily digest and follow. Game recaps and previews written by Zach Harper. Our in-depth NBA coverage is linked under the picks. For live NBA odds from BetMGM, click here.

Celtics at Bucks

Game 2: Celtics 109, Bucks 86 | Series tied 1-1

Key stat: 20-3. That’s how many 3s the Celtics have made compared to how many 3s the Bucks have made. Boston had three players who made more 3s on their own than the Bucks made as a team: Jaylen Brown, Grant Williams (6 of 9 off the bench) and Jayson Tatum (5 of 10). It was the first time in franchise history that Boston was 20-3 in a postseason game, and the only other time in NBA playoff history that a team was 17-3 more. that his opponent was Game 6 of the 2016 Western Conference Finals, when the Golden State Warriors made 21 3s (11 by Klay Thompson) and the Oklahoma City Thunder made 3 at home. The weakest part of Milwaukee’s defense is the number of 3s it allows. Game 2 was the first time the Bucks allowed 20 3s in the playoffs, but the Bucks allowed a league-high eight games of at least 20 3s in the regular season.

What can the Celtics do to win Game 3: There have only been three games all season, regular or postseason, when a team has attempted fewer 3s than the 18 the Bucks have had in Game 2. Mike Budenholzer became the head coach of the Bucks in 2018, and they had attempted at least 22 3s in every game Budenholzer coached through Tuesday night in Boston. It was a masterful defensive performance from the Celtics, and it will have to travel. Offensively, the Celtics are going to look good from 3 as they face the Bucks. But the Celtics still need to keep the Bucks honest by taking midrange shots when open and not dropping the paint for long stretches.

What the Bucks can do to win Game 3: The Bucks have made more field goals, more free throws, have more rebounds and forced more turnovers than Boston in two games. That’s with Giannis Antetokounmpo missing double-digit shots in the paint in back-to-back games. But going back to Game 1, the Bucks have now missed 27 of 32 3s over the past six quarters. Finding a way to involve Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis offensively would be easier if either were skilled passers. But Lopez didn’t attempt a shot in the first half of Game 2, while Portis only attempted three shots before halftime. Boston charges to take Antetokounmpo, but not in a way that will unlock 3-point shooters. Perhaps the involvement of two other players who could have big mismatches in Brook Lopez and Portis will loosen Boston’s defense on Antetokounmpo.

Grizzlies at Warriors

Game 2: Grizzlies 106, Warriors 101 | Series tied 1-1

Who was the guy? Ja Morant. 47 points, eight rebounds, eight assists, three steals. The only players to get at least 45/8/8/3 in a playoff game before Morant were four MVPs: Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook and Michael Jordan. Morant created 66 of Memphis’ 106 points on the night, and he scored the final 15 points for Memphis on his own. Morant started early, scoring 14 points and five assists in the first quarter. Everything Morant did was right in the middle of the field, and that included going 5-of-12-3, with all of his attempts going over the break. The league leader in points in the paint per game, Morant went 9 of 16 in the paint in Game 2. And he made 12 of 13 free throws. It was the most important performance of Morant’s career, and it allowed the city of Memphis to host the Warriors for at least one more game.

What the Grizzlies can do to win Game 3: It’s about relieving Morant. Memphis was able to escape Game 2 despite Dillon Brooks being ejected, goalkeeper Desmond Bane’s back problems playing a role in his scoreless first half and forward Jaren Jackson Jr.’s frequent foul issues playing a role in his scoreless second half. Memphis hopes the three days off can prepare Bane to play. Jackson was great in Game 1 and had 10 first-quarter points in Game 2, but he failed to make a field goal in the final three quarters of the game while racking up his six fouls. The Warriors hit Brandon Clarke and kept him from making an impact. Morant needs his teammates to help him get into the fourth quarter so he can be at his best late, especially on the road.

What the Warriors can do to win Game 3: It was only fitting that Game 2 would essentially end with Thompson’s trip, which was the 18th turnover of the game for Golden State. The Warriors no longer play the Denver Nuggets, a team that has struggled all season to force turnovers. Memphis relies heavily on winning the possession battle, and Golden State is actually doing a great job on the glass in this series. But the Warriors undo their work, especially the offensive glass, by turning the ball around and allowing an inferior Memphis offense to get free money during the break. The Warriors played their best ball in this series when Jordan Poole started the second half and put his head down against a relatively languid Memphis team coming out of halftime. Gary Payton II’s injury could open that door for Poole to start the first halves that way.

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(Photo by Ja Morant and Steph Curry: Justin Ford/Getty Images)